Hai nguy c\u01a1 c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9<\/strong><\/p>\nKinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nguy c\u01a1 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 suy gi\u1ea3m t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. Theo \u0111\u00f3, do l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i, \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n vay chi ti\u00eau h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n
Theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed), t\u1ed5ng c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng trong th\u00e1ng 2 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng 15,3 t\u1ef7 USD, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh trung b\u00ecnh t\u0103ng 18 t\u1ef7 USD. S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng s\u1ee9c vay c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng M\u1ef9 \u0111ang y\u1ebfu \u0111i.<\/p>\n
M\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c \u0111i\u1ec1u tra d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 3 cho th\u1ea5y, c\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng 1\/3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ecd s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng th\u1ebb t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ho\u1eb7c kho\u1ea3n vay \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng nhu c\u1ea7u chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Th\u1ebf n\u00ean trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n nay v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf xu\u1ed1ng d\u1ed1c s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t chi ti\u00eau h\u01a1n n\u1eefa c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n
Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m \u0111i vay, th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t chi ti\u00eau d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n khi c\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2023. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 Fed s\u1ebd gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 5% ho\u1eb7c l\u1edbn h\u01a1n cho \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n
V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e1ng lo h\u01a1n c\u00f2n l\u00e0 n\u1eb1m \u1edf ph\u00eda c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) v\u00e0 Signature Bank (SB) c\u00e0ng khi\u1ebfn m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n. V\u00ec hai s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y \u0111ang l\u00e0m m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng khu v\u1ef1c quy m\u00f4 nh\u1ecf sang c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1edbn. Khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u1eeba v\u00e0 nh\u1ecf tr\u1edf n\u00ean d\u00e8 d\u1eb7t trong vi\u1ec7c cho vay do ph\u1ea3i \u01b0u ti\u00ean gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 thanh kho\u1ea3n. Ngo\u00e0i ra c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1edbn t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i chuy\u1ec3n tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m sang t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 m\u00f3c h\u1ea7u bao r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 do kinh t\u1ebf xu\u1ed1ng d\u1ed1c. \u0110\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111ang suy gi\u1ea3m \u1edf c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i vay l\u1eabn ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho vay.<\/p>\n
Ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 Fed h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi khi t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, qua \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. T\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 3, Fed cho bi\u1ebft b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n trong ng\u00e0nh ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u201cc\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf, tuy\u1ec3n d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d. V\u00e0 \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec Fed mong mu\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n
Matthew Luzzetti \u2013 Nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edfng Hoa K\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a Deutsche Bank \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng 10 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u00ec n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng n\u1eeda \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m, \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 xua tan k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o suy tho\u00e1i.<\/p>\n
T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2023 do \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y s\u00e1ng s\u1ee7a v\u1edbi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n
C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi suy gi\u1ea3m t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, ng\u00e0nh b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng nhen nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed5 v\u1ee1 \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. Theo \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, bao g\u1ed3m v\u0103n ph\u00f2ng, khu chung c\u01b0, nh\u00e0 kho v\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i trong th\u00e1ng 3 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m 15% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec9nh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n
The \u00f4ng Matt Anderson, Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh t\u1ea1i Trepp, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e1ng lo l\u00e0 n\u1eb1m \u1edf ch\u1ed7 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ch\u1eadm thanh to\u00e1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n vay th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i vay \u0111ang t\u0103ng l\u00ean.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c v\u1ee5 v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng c\u0169ng \u0111ang d\u1ea7n nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n. \u0110i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh trong \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nay, ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a 7 t\u00f2a nh\u00e0 v\u0103n ph\u00f2ng \u1edf San Francisco, New York, Boston v\u00e0 Jersey, \u0111\u00e3 v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 g\u1ea7n 2 t\u1ef7 USD.<\/p>\n
B\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n l\u00e0 ng\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfm d\u1ee5ng nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, th\u1ebf n\u00ean khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y lao d\u1ed1c t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2022 \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u1ea5t thanh kho\u1ea3n do ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i vay v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3.<\/p>\n
Theo Trepp, n\u0103m 2023 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n vay l\u00ean t\u1edbi 270 t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i do c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n. Trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng 80 t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u0103n ph\u00f2ng. V\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 n\u0103m 2023 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 n\u0103m c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1ec1 thanh kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1ee7i ro, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t vi\u1ec7c cho vay.<\/p>\n
S\u1ef1 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/strong><\/p>\n