{"id":476781,"date":"2021-02-16T12:11:02","date_gmt":"2021-02-16T05:11:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/canhco.net\/?p=476781"},"modified":"2021-02-16T12:11:03","modified_gmt":"2021-02-16T05:11:03","slug":"tang-truong-gdp-nho-dau-tu-cong-va-fdi-vay-tien-da-chay-di-dau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/tang-truong-gdp-nho-dau-tu-cong-va-fdi-vay-tien-da-chay-di-dau-p476781.html","title":{"rendered":"T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP nh\u1edd \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 FDI, v\u1eady ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea3y \u0111i \u0111\u00e2u?\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

PGS.TS Ph\u1ea1m Th\u1ebf Anh ch\u1ec9 ra: t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP n\u0103m 2020 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 FDI \u2013 nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, tuy nhi\u00ean t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng l\u1ea1i t\u0103ng t\u1edbi 12,13%. Nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o c\u00e1c k\u00eanh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ra r\u1ee7i ro cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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PGS.TS Ph\u1ea1m Th\u1ebf Anh<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p><\/figure>\n

L\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7y s\u00f3ng gi\u00f3 nh\u01b0ng 2020 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00e9p l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam b\u1eb1ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP 2,91%, thu\u1ed9c nh\u00f3m n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, \u201cm\u1ee5c ti\u00eau k\u00e9p\u201d v\u1eeba ch\u1ed1ng d\u1ecbch v\u1eeba ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. \u0110\u00e2y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh t\u1ef1u n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 trong n\u0103m 2020 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 2016 \u2013 2020.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn s\u00e2u h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 b\u1ee9c tranh kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam 2020 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng cho 2021, VietnamFinance \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 cu\u1ed9c trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi PGS.TS Ph\u1ea1m Th\u1ebf Anh \u2013 Tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ed9 m\u00f4n Kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, khoa Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc, Tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n:<\/p>\n

\u2013 \u00d4ng nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP 2,91% n\u0103m 2020?<\/strong><\/p>\n

PGS.TS Ph\u1ea1m Th\u1ebf Anh: \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, x\u00e9t trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh ho\u00e0nh h\u00e0nh v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t g\u1eb7p nhi\u1ec1u kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e2u l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi t\u1eeb 3 tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t: ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. V\u1ec1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, n\u0103m 2020 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh, do thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n gi\u1ea3m s\u00fat, t\u00e2m l\u00ed ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng l\u00ean cao v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a du kh\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u1eeb qu\u00fd II\/2020.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, ch\u00fang ta th\u1ea5y r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 b\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ee1 cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng, c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c ngo\u00e0i nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u0103ng r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i th\u00ec suy gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, n\u0103m 2020 c\u00f3 th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn, 19,1 t\u1ef7 USD, nh\u01b0ng th\u00e0nh t\u00edch n\u00e0y ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra b\u1edfi khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, khi nh\u00ecn s\u00e2u v\u00e0o con s\u1ed1 2,91%, ch\u00fang ta th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a FDI. Hai \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, b\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch, c\u00f2n FDI th\u00ec t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i \u00edch t\u1ea1o ra t\u1eeb khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn thu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed n\u0103m t\u1edbi d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh v\u1eabn ho\u00e0nh h\u00e0nh tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia v\u1eabn \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda th\u00ec \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 FDI c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec kh\u00f4ng?! Do v\u1eady, t\u00f4i ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cho n\u0103m t\u1edbi l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n n\u1ebfu b\u1ec7nh d\u1ecbch c\u00f2n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, \u00f4ng kh\u00e1 quan ng\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 6,5% c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2021?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau r\u1ea5t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c! Kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c 4 \u2013 5%, v\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n th\u1ea5p, c\u00f2n Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n cao. Th\u1eed h\u00ecnh dung, trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u0169 (kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ecbch), Vi\u1ec7t Nam m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 6,5 \u2013 7%, v\u1eady trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 d\u1ecbch th\u00ec s\u1ebd th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?!<\/p>\n

Khi \u0111\u1eb7t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng GDP 6,5%, t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang \u0111\u1eb7t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i n\u00e0y l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2020, trong \u201cc\u1ed7 xe tam m\u00e3\u201d (ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0), \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, v\u1eady c\u00f2n xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u th\u00ec sao?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang ta kh\u00e1 h\u1ed3 h\u1edfi v\u1edbi th\u00e0nh t\u00edch xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 19,1 t\u1ef7 USD, nh\u01b0ng xin l\u01b0u \u00fd \u0111\u00e2y ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a. C\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i g\u1ed3m hai b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn l\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5. H\u00e0ng h\u00f3a xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau nh\u01b0ng d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 l\u1ea1i nh\u1eadp si\u00eau. N\u0103m 2020, Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u1eadp si\u00eau d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 t\u1edbi 12 t\u1ef7 USD, t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p 8 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2019. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, v\u1ec1 th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t, Vi\u1ec7t Nam ch\u1ec9 xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau 7,1 t\u1ef7 USD th\u00f4i.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi con s\u1ed1 xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a 19,1 t\u1ef7 USD, ch\u00fang ta nh\u00ecn k\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb FDI. Khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u cao h\u01a1n m\u00e0 c\u00f2n chi\u1ebfm t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng l\u1edbn trong t\u1ed5ng kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u kh\u00f4ng vui r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p FDI \u0111ang th\u00edch \u1ee9ng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c \u01b0u th\u1ebf FTAs (hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i t\u1ef1 do) t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

\u2013 L\u1ea1i n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, b\u00e1o c\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 qu\u00fd III\/2020 do Vi\u1ec7n Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch (VEPR) xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e0y t\u1ecf s\u1ef1 nghi ng\u1edd v\u1ec1 kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng, r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Vi\u1ec7t Nam ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m trung chuy\u1ec3n, t\u1ea1m nh\u1eadp t\u00e1i xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Trung Qu\u1ed1c sang M\u1ef9. V\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 Kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a VEPR v\u00e0 v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u1ea3 n\u0103m 2020 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3, \u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u00f2n b\u1ea3o l\u01b0u s\u1ef1 nghi ng\u1edd n\u00e0y?<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00f3i v\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, h\u00e3y x\u00e9t c\u1ea3 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng. V\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1edbi t\u1eeb M\u1ef9, h\u01a1n 60 t\u1ef7 USD. Ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb M\u1ef9, Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u1eadp si\u00eau h\u01a1n 40 t\u1ef7 USD. Xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau sang M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 k\u00e9o to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam sang tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e0 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u doanh nghi\u1ec7p n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i v\u00e0o Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u sang M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

Xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau sang M\u1ef9 c\u1ed1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 t\u1ed1t nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng \u0111i k\u00e8m r\u1ee7i ro, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, m\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y ch\u00fang ta ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 FTA. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed c\u00f3 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i th\u00ec r\u1ea5t gay go cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Hi\u1ec7n nay, M\u1ef9 \u0111ang \u0111i\u1ec1u tra Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c thao t\u00fang ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1o bu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00e0n lu\u1eadn, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

Trong khi xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau sang M\u1ef9 th\u00ec Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u1ea1i nh\u1eadp si\u00eau l\u1edbn t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c. V\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean nh\u1eefng nghi ng\u1ea1i. Nghi ng\u1ea1i n\u00e0y c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u01a1n khi nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, c\u1ea3 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u n\u0103m 2020 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 m\u00e1y vi t\u00ednh, s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u00e0 linh ki\u1ec7n, m\u00e1y m\u00f3c, thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb\u2026 C\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y, Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u1eadp nhi\u1ec1u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 l\u1ea1i xu\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u sang M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn chung, \u1edf c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng n\u00eau tr\u00ean, Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i r\u1ea5t \u00edt, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ph\u01a1i b\u00e0y m\u1ed9t th\u1ef1c tr\u1ea1ng \u0111au x\u00f3t l\u00e0 l\u00e0 khi c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i \u00edch th\u00ec FDI h\u01b0\u1edfng g\u1ea7n h\u1ebft c\u00f2n n\u1ebfu x\u1ea3y ra r\u1ee7i ro th\u00ec doanh nghi\u1ec7p Vi\u1ec7t Nam h\u1ee9ng ch\u1ecbu ph\u1ea7n nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

Trong c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng bu\u1ed3n kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam b\u1ecb s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m nh\u01b0: d\u1ec7t may, da gi\u00e0y, n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n\u2026 Mu\u1ed1n n\u0103m 2021 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao th\u00ec c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i l\u1ea5y l\u1ea1i phong \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc, b\u1edfi l\u1ef1c c\u1ea7u m\u00e1y m\u00f3c, thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i b\u1edfi ch\u00fang l\u00e0 h\u00e0ng l\u00e2u b\u1ec1n. Tuy v\u1eady, vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng c\u00f3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hay kh\u00f4ng l\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3i tr\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee3i ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u00c2u \u2013 M\u1ef9 \u2013 Nh\u1eadt c\u00f3 m\u1edf c\u1eeda tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

\u2013 M\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt kh\u00e1c trong n\u0103m 2020 l\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2020, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng 12,13%. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng n\u00f3i l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 10 ng\u00e0y, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc cho bi\u1ebft t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u0103m 2020 t\u0103ng 10,14%. C\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 trong 10 ng\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng t\u1edbi 2 \u0111i\u1ec3m %. \u00d4ng c\u00f3 b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn g\u00ec v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y?<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u0103m 2020 g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, nh\u01b0ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP l\u1ea1i thua xa, v\u1eady ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea3y \u0111i \u0111\u00e2u?<\/p>\n

T\u00f4i \u0111\u1eb7t ra c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi n\u00e0y b\u1edfi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP 2020 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 FDI, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng.<\/p>\n

T\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh \u0111\u00e3 h\u00fat b\u1edbt m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ed1n trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, th\u00ec \u00edt nh\u1ea5t c\u00f2n hai l\u00ed do khi\u1ebfn t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u0103m nay t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 12,13%.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t l\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu do \u0111\u1ea3o n\u1ee3, gia h\u1ea1n, c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u n\u1ee3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t doanh nghi\u1ec7p n\u0103m 2019 vay 100 \u0111\u1ed3ng, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 10%. N\u0103m 2020, doanh nghi\u1ec7p kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c tr\u1ea3, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u n\u1ee3, \u0111em l\u00e3i nh\u1eadp g\u1ed1c th\u00e0nh kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 m\u1edbi tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 110 \u0111\u1ed3ng. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 10%. Nh\u01b0ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111i v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o ra c\u00f4ng \u0103n vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, kh\u00f4ng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. \u0110\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng tr\u00ean s\u1ed5 s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Hai l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111i v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t m\u00e0 \u0111i v\u00e0o c\u00e1c k\u00eanh ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u (\u00f4 t\u00f4) v\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u1ea5y kh\u00e1 r\u00f5: giao d\u1ecbch ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n n\u0103m 2019 trung b\u00ecnh 4.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng\/phi\u00ean, n\u0103m nay nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean t\u1edbi 20.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng\/phi\u00ean, r\u1ea5t kh\u1ee7ng khi\u1ebfp; gi\u00e1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n c\u0169ng t\u0103ng v\u00f2n v\u1ecdt.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng cho vay \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n hay b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp. Nh\u01b0ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c k\u00eanh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u00e0y. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u00edch l\u0169y, trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd d\u00f9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00f3 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. Nh\u01b0ng do d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh, l\u00e3i vay th\u1ea5p, ch\u1ee7 doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111i vay ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, c\u00f2n \u0111em l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u00edch l\u0169y \u0111i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e1ng l\u1ebd l\u1ea5y ti\u1ec1n tr\u1ea3 n\u1ee3, nh\u01b0ng do \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u n\u1ee3, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111em ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 tin r\u1eb1ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, kinh doanh. N\u1ebfu qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111i v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, kinh doanh th\u00ec th\u1eadt \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i, v\u00ec ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng k\u00e9m qu\u00e1, t\u0103ng t\u1edbi 12,13% m\u00e0 GDP ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng 2,91%. T\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng ngh\u0129 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n th\u1ea5p nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u00e2u.<\/p>\n

\u2013 V\u1eady khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a cho n\u0103m 2021 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i: t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a v\u1eabn c\u1ea7n t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng g\u00ec c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft, thi\u1ebft th\u1ef1c. Nh\u1eefng g\u00f3i h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nh\u01b0 mi\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf (thu nh\u1eadp doanh nghi\u1ec7p) hay gi\u1ea3m ph\u00ed (tr\u01b0\u1edbc b\u1ea1 \u00f4 t\u00f4) \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p l\u00e3ng ph\u00ed, ai h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i v\u1eabn h\u01b0\u1edfng, ai ch\u1ebft v\u1eabn ch\u1ebft.<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam h\u1ea1n h\u1eb9p n\u00ean r\u1ea5t c\u1ea7n gi\u1eef tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m. \u01afu ti\u00ean h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1eabn l\u00e0 chi tr\u1ea3 an sinh cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m. Th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m, t\u1eadp trung v\u1ed1n cho nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch, v\u00ec \u0111\u1ea5y l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i di\u1ec5n t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ch\u1eadm ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9, \u0111\u1ed9i v\u1ed1n; ki\u00ean quy\u1ebft n\u00f3i kh\u00f4ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft nh\u01b0 qu\u1ea3ng tr\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, t\u00f4i khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb hai ch\u1eef \u201cth\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng\u201d. Cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2020, hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng bong b\u00f3ng gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n r\u1ed3i. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00e0ng h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00ec c\u00e0ng k\u00edch th\u00edch ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ea3y sang k\u00eanh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n t\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng, \u0111\u1eebng ham th\u00e0nh t\u00edch. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng 12 \u2013 13% m\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kinh doanh th\u00ec t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m g\u00ec. N\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m gi\u00e0u cho c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, c\u00f4ng ty t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. Trong th\u1eddi k\u00ec d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh, doanh nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u1eabn b\u00e1o l\u00e3i r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng kinh t\u1ebf r\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3n c\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

N\u0103m t\u1edbi, Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a, \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e0nh c\u1ed1 h\u1eefu, khi th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch cao v\u00e0 ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 tr\u1ea3 n\u1ee3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp\/thu ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch ch\u1ea1m tr\u1ea7n. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 m\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ra bong b\u00f3ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u1eefa th\u00ec v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng r\u1ee7i ro. Khi d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh qua \u0111i, kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c, s\u1ee9c \u00e9p l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean. Khi \u0111\u00f3, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, ch\u1ed1ng bong b\u00f3ng gi\u00e1. H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng doanh nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t s\u1ebd nai l\u01b0ng ra ch\u1ecbu tr\u1eadn.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1i ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea7n l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng. H\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi, \u1edf m\u1ed9t kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p trong x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. Khi thu nh\u1eadp gi\u1ea3m, t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t chi ti\u00eau khi\u1ebfn c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m, h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a b\u00e1n k\u00e9m. C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i, c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng v\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u1edf b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i\u2026<\/p>\n

Xin c\u1ea3m \u01a1n \u00f4ng v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c trao \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y!<\/p>\n

\u00c1i Ch\u00e2u<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PGS.TS Ph\u1ea1m Th\u1ebf Anh ch\u1ec9 ra: t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP n\u0103m 2020 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 FDI \u2013 nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, tuy nhi\u00ean t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng l\u1ea1i t\u0103ng t\u1edbi 12,13%. Nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o c\u00e1c k\u00eanh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ra r\u1ee7i […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4],"tags":[594,13730,3309],"topics":[],"longform":[],"members":[142318],"story":[],"thematic":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/476781"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=476781"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/476781\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":476784,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/476781\/revisions\/476784"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=476781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=476781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=476781"},{"taxonomy":"topics","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topics?post=476781"},{"taxonomy":"longform","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longform?post=476781"},{"taxonomy":"members","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/members?post=476781"},{"taxonomy":"story","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/story?post=476781"},{"taxonomy":"thematic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/m.canhco.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thematic?post=476781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}